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Today, we’re going to talk a little bit about geopolitics, albeit rather briefly given the complexity of the subject. It’s a question we’re often asked since that fateful February 24, 2022, the day the Russian forces began their invasion of Ukraine: given the surprise of this attack, is it risky to travel to countries bordering Russia, particularly Estonia and Latvia? Just a few days ago, on our YouTube channel, David also asked us: “With what’s happening right now in Ukraine, is it a good idea to go to Estonia? With Russia right next door, I’m not very reassured…”
Let’s be clear from the outset: few people at the beginning of the 2022 were betting on a Russian military invasion. Even the leading experts remained cautious, despite the Kremlin massing tens of thousands of troops on Ukraine’s borders. This illustrates just how unpredictable Vladimir Putin has been, and it’s impossible to completely rule out another dramatic move, however irrational it may be.
The war in Ukraine should not deter you from visiting the Baltic countries.
That being said, the chances of seeing the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) suffer a Ukrainian martyrdom are relatively low—but, again, not nonexistent. Firstly, for a significant reason: these countries are members of NATO (and the EU), and according to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, attacking them would provoke a response from all Alliance members—led by the United States, the United Kingdom, and France.
Secondly, because at the time of writing, Russia already has a lot to do in Ukraine, and opening new fronts would not, in our opinion, be in its interest.
Finally, if such an eventuality were to arise, it would require preparation – as in Ukraine, sending troops to the borders – and third countries would raise the alarm and coordinate the evacuations of their nationals.
Stay well-informed… but enjoy!
The situation in Ukraine should therefore not deter you from visiting Estonia or Latvia. Especially since, between the magic of Tallinn (read our guide and our selection of hotels), the authenticity of Saaremaa Island (another guide), or the beauty of Riga, you would be missing out on a lot.
Of course, it’s essential to stay informed. Each foreign ministry has dedicated pages on its website. For France, the Quai d’Orsay (the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs) maintains an up-to-date risk assessment for Estonia (read here) and Latvia (read here). Neither, incidentally, mentions any particular dangers linked to neighbouring Russia—not even in regions inhabited by Russian-speaking minorities, regions which, incidentally, also boast some beautiful tourist attractions. From a security perspective, the Baltic countries are even considered model students in Europe.